Florida’s economy, which climbed to $1.85 trillion in the third quarter of 2025 and led the nation in growth, and will continue expanding through 2035 but at a markedly slower pace than in recent years. That, according to Florida TaxWatch’s latest long-term forecast released last week.
The Q4 2025 economic outlook, produced in partnership with the Regional Economic Consulting Group, projects real GDP growth of 2.7% in 2026, tapering to approximately 1.9% by 2035—a return to pre-pandemic “normal” rates following the elevated expansion of the past three years driven by tourism, trade, and real estate.
“Fueled by a strong global presence in tourism, trade, and real estate development, Florida’s economy has grown to $1.85 trillion in Q3 of 2025,” Florida TaxWatch President and CEO Jeff Kottkamp said. “Overall, Florida’s economy is now set to return to pre-pandemic growth rates over the next five years, after experiencing high economic growth in the past three years.”
The forecast attributes the moderated trajectory in part to cooling net migration, as rising housing costs, insurance rates, and other pressures reduce the daily influx of new residents from 922 in 2025 to 689 by 2035. Overall population is still expected to rise from about 23.4 million in 2025 to roughly 26 million by 2035, supporting job gains from 10.1 million non-farm employed in 2025 to 11.5 million in 2035.
Unemployment, currently at 3.9% in 2025, is projected to climb to a peak of 4.4% in 2027 before stabilizing around 4% by the end of the forecast period. The report also anticipates modestly declining inflation in coming years, though subject to interest rate fluctuations and broader national economic uncertainty, including lower consumer confidence.
“This forecast continues to show the growth of Florida, but at a much slower rate than the previous forecasts,” the analysis states. “This can be, in part, due to economic uncertainty in the nation, as well as a lower level of consumer confidence in the economy.”
Florida TaxWatch, a nonpartisan research institute focused on fiscal and policy issues, issues quarterly economic projections using REC Group data to inform policymakers and business leaders. The full report is available on the organization’s website. No immediate reactions from state officials were detailed in connection with the release as of March 23, 2026.
